Showing posts with label Free Pick. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Free Pick. Show all posts

Wednesday, March 12, 2014

Nothing to write home about last night as we broke relatively even as the picks went 2-1-0 and the value picks were 0-1-1. Lets try and find some profits tonight so here is what I am looking at for picks.

Record 2-2-1

Boston Bruins 1.74 at Montreal Canadiens 

This always makes for a good match up but on the road or at home Boston is playing much to well to pass up at really great odds in my opinion. I like them on the money line as it could very well be close but I look for the Bruins to once again gain the edge on offense and if that fails, they can always rely on the big edge they have in goal assuming it will be Rask vs Budaj. Go with the Bruins.

Winnipeg Jets 1.71 vs Vancouver Canucks

These teams are both stinking and Vancouver actually looked good... until the third. A seven goal period could very well wake the Canucks up but the Jets are in the same position and Winnipeg is no easy city to play in so ill take Winnipeg at good odds and get the home crowd a much deserved win.

Anaheim Ducks -1 at 1.87 at Calgary Flames

The Ducks are not playing at their best losing their last three games at home but being a good road team as well this should be a great spot for them to get a little pressure off from the home crowd and play a solid game against not only a bad Calgary Flames team but one that is also very banged up. Anaheim should win relatively easy even though Calgary usually does play well at home the Ducks are just much better overall. 

Value Picks

Record 2-1-1

Colorado Avalanche 2.10 vs Chicago Blackhawks

I have three main thoughts into this pick. First is that Colorado has owned Chicago in recent history even while Chicago was playing so hot it was Colorado who would solve them. Secondly I believe that Colorado is currently in a better form than Chicago. Lastly Colorado is at home where they play very well and I am sure they have all been at home waiting for this game. I am definitely siding with Colorado in this one however if you are looking at Chicago take the -1 at 2.65 as they are a 1.77 favourite in the game yet Colorado only pays 2.35 which is a bit odd so jump on that advantage if you take Chicago. 

Tuesday, March 11, 2014

A great night, our picks of the night went 0-1-1 but the value picks went 2-0 cashing at great odds of roughly 3.7 on each ticket with the Islanders scoring 7 goals in the third... I didn't know that was still possible in the NHL and Toronto controlling a lead all game to win 3-1 in Anaheim. Great picks and if you took all four picks you made a nice profit last night.


On to Tonight's Picks         Record  0-1-1


Columbus 1.69 vs Detroit

They got off early last night and as goes for Dallas I am sure they got a wake up call as is human nature when something such as last night happens. I see Columbus taking care of the beat up Red Wings at home and they will lead off with the first goal as they did the night before. Both teams are in the hunt but home ice should be enough of an edge to get the win.

Nashville 1.83 at Buffalo

Odds like this I will fade Buffalo easily, Nashville is by no means great but got back in the win column against Ottawa and had played some difficult close losses prior to that against top teams (St Louis, Pittsburgh). I look for them to come out and finally be on the winning side of one of those low scoring games they have been playing.

New York Rangers 1.71 or -1 at 2.45 at Carolina

This is one of those games. New York is 10-0-0 against Carolina. I am not going against that especially given the positions of these teams. The over is also worth a look a 7-1-2 and pays a very good 2.30 at over 5.5. I am certainly hoping for a 4-2 Rangers victory!

Value Bets            Record 2-0-0

Dallas -1 at 4.00 at St Louis

I am sorry, St Louis is a very good team and not often do I bet against them however Dallas is in need of every win possible and they could come out flying after last night. Lets look for a big outing from the Stars to get a road win knowing their teammate is okay.

Toronto -1 at 4.15 at San Jose

It won't be easy but they played well last night and may have enough in them to get another win to the streak so at such inflated odds I will side with the value of Toronto.



Friday, March 7, 2014

Once again everybody the picks went 3-0 tonight with New York coming back in the third, Florida easily took care of Buffalo as expected and Calgary also made a desperate third period comeback to get us the win in regulation. The games all turned out very well in our favour covering all the spreads allowing us to win on each of the bets! That makes our picks 6-0 in the last two days, tomorrow is a whole new day though so lets try and come back with some more solid winners and keep the bankroll moving up.


Monday, March 3, 2014

I apologize, I promised picks this morning and I failed to deliver. I did have a couple picks I made myself which ended in a small loss on the night. I had taken St. Louis ML at 1.80 and the under at 1.83 and St. Louis made a desperate third period effort to win the game 4-2 scoring in the last two minutes of the game sending this one over. Although I would of preferred that win of $300.00 I did profit on my smaller wager of St Louis -1.5 which luckily came back to win to help cover the damage of the loss.

Anyways lets get into some picks for today.

Dallas 1.71 in Regulation vs Buffalo

Alright in general I am not a huge fan of regulation bets, I believe so many games are much closer than a spread indicates and a hot goalie can make any game close and many needing extra time or even a shootout to decide a winner. Now you may ask why I bet -1.5 if I don't bet regulation as essentially it is the same thing just by two goals. The reason being is I am a complete believer in the empty netter goals and in games I usually believe end in regulation I like the odds of them already being up by a couple or having the wide opportunity of an empty net to give us a two goal profit. As for this Dallas game, I believe Dallas is heating up and lost to Tampa Bay because of a hot goalie in Bishop stopping 40 of 42 shots, Dallas giving up half of that in shots but ultimately losing. Buffalo is in a scramble, they have won every game since the olympic break, traded away star Ryan Miller and one of Buffalos better players in Ott, are looking at trades for Halak and Stewart who have yet to even wear the jersey and it appears Halak never will with Enroth getting the start. He has played well with all this but his team is incredibly weak right now and if Miller struggled Enroth is bound to get back to his losing ways as Buffalo loses its edge on the road and a much stronger and more skilled team takes care of the win on home ice easily. With the -1.5 line being only 2.30, I would rather buy the goal and bet them to just win in case Enroth keeps up his strong play and keep Buffalo close but ultimately still losing in regulation. It is almost like every player in Buffalo is putting on a top performance to try and get interest for a trade out of the city and the current team but I there is no way I see that continuing. If Dallas stands a chance in the Western Conference this game should be a routine victory for Dallas.

Minnesota 1.91 in Regulation vs Calgary

Again... I really don't like the odds of 2.50 on the -1.5 line, I mainly look for a line closer to or above 3.00 for it to be profitable. Much like the other pick Calgary is also at the very bottom of the standings but have also been playing much better of late. Minnesota has also been playing strong and at home I don't doubt they should take care of Calgary in regulation. The ML just has no value for me in this game as I do feel Minnesota should win easily but with the play of Calgary I will once again buy the goal just in case it is closer than I think. As Minnesota is 21-8 as a favourite meaning they win most of the games they are expected to win I feel confident that they can do it as a 21-7-2 home team against a Calgary team most would expect Minnesota to outplay even if it is a low scoring affair. I do however prefer the over 5 goals in this game compared to any of the other games on the night. I think it provides the most value as the last 4 games have reached that or more and as Minnesota is still hunting down a goalie and Calgary always seems to find a way to score a couple I would take my chance with the over, its not the strongest bet and therefore I am not including it as a pick but I do think it has value with it being at 5 and paying out 1.87.      Look at the Toronto vs Columbus game which pays out only 1.80 for over 5.5, yes it could happen, but I am not going to risk my money that it doesn't end up 2-2 in the third for 1.80.

Those will be the picks of the day, if you have any comments or are looking for advice on a certain game feel free to comment and discuss.