I am in a bit of a rush today but made time for the picks.
Here they are
Minnesota Wild 1.91 vs New York Rangers
Both teams have struggled a bit of late and with two fairly even teams and Lundquist will not be starting I will side with the home team to take a close one.
Boston Bruins vs Phoenix Coyotes and Under 5.5 for 1.74
I see the Bruins to continue winning especially back at home but I think coming back from Montreal will result in a defensive game which is exactly the style suited to Mike Smith and the Coyotes and the under is much more valuable than buying the Bruins for 1.51 as in a low scoring game I am not confident enough to pick a side with these two teams playing so well.
Carolina Hurricanes -1 at 1.83 vs Buffalo Sabres
I see Carolina getting another win here at home against a lost Sabres club that will need years before they will compete again. Carolina is not great, but are much better off than Buffalo especially given the home ice advantage. Lets go Canes.
Value Picks
Florida Panthers 3.15 at Tampa Bay Lightning
Tampa Bay has just been a mess, and they should get a win tonight, but in a rivalry game the odds have ran with the public and the value is certainly with Florida with five straight losses by Tampa Bay. Maybe the impact of St. Louis leaving was a little more devastating than management thought it would be.
Edmonton Oilers +1.5 at 1.91 at St Louis Blues
The Blues are very good but this is the NHL and any team can win of a given night and to get a chance to lose by a goal for almost even odds is far to good to give up in my mind. St Louis has dominated this series but Edmonton is used to being at the bottom without playoff hope so look for them to compete and upsets like this are just what they want to build on. St Louis in general plays fairly close games while still winning so although I still give the odds to win, I will take the chance plus a goal that it will be more competitive than the public thinks.
Showing posts with label Spread. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Spread. Show all posts
Thursday, March 13, 2014
Saturday, March 8, 2014
NCAA Basketball Picks
Alright so my first two NCAA Basketball Picks have lost and I am looking to even that out with some winners. The games are getting very exciting as selection sunday is very soon and teams on the bubble will be playing desperately.
Syracuse -1 at Florida State
Florida State has been playing very well of late and Syracuse has not. This is very unlike Syracuse who has the talent and coaching to win they just must focus as a group. Although being in Florida State is going to be tough I see the stars of Syracuse rising and locking up a win to build some confidence heading into conference tournament play. I may be wrong, they may continue losing and get stomped on the road but I believe they have too much firepower for Florida State to handle on most given nights.
Florida Gulf Coast -2 vs Mercer
This game will be close but I believe the experience of Florida GC and playing at home will give them the edge to work out a victory in the last minutes of the game.
Maryland vs Virginia - Half time/Full time - Maryland/Virginia at 6.00
Don't bet your life on it but with six ways of winning getting 6-1 odds is good enough for me as Maryland is bound to come and play and I can see them coming out strong in the first half but ultimately getting pushed out of a win by a better Virginia team who has proven they can win road games.
Alright so my first two NCAA Basketball Picks have lost and I am looking to even that out with some winners. The games are getting very exciting as selection sunday is very soon and teams on the bubble will be playing desperately.
Syracuse -1 at Florida State
Florida State has been playing very well of late and Syracuse has not. This is very unlike Syracuse who has the talent and coaching to win they just must focus as a group. Although being in Florida State is going to be tough I see the stars of Syracuse rising and locking up a win to build some confidence heading into conference tournament play. I may be wrong, they may continue losing and get stomped on the road but I believe they have too much firepower for Florida State to handle on most given nights.
Florida Gulf Coast -2 vs Mercer
This game will be close but I believe the experience of Florida GC and playing at home will give them the edge to work out a victory in the last minutes of the game.
Maryland vs Virginia - Half time/Full time - Maryland/Virginia at 6.00
Don't bet your life on it but with six ways of winning getting 6-1 odds is good enough for me as Maryland is bound to come and play and I can see them coming out strong in the first half but ultimately getting pushed out of a win by a better Virginia team who has proven they can win road games.
Well our picks once again went well depending how you played them. As the Boston game pushed at -1, Carolina lost by one so if you played the +1 you also pushed or lost playing the -1. St Louis once again got us a win and was the lone profit for us but as I said before a push is a win as its as if you never bet on the game and I am fine taking my money back as long as I am not losing it.
Lets get into todays picks
New York Rangers 1.61 vs Detroit Red Wings
Detroit has done a pretty good job, better than I thought considering the injuries to the team but I think the nationally televised game will provide enough excitement in the New York locker room to get a win. I really want to play the regulation win at 2.00 however with these teams playing close low scorings games in the past I am going to proceed with a bit of caution and buy the money line although I am quite confident in the pick of the Rangers.
Chicago Blackhawks -1 at 1.83 at Buffalo Sabres
These teams ought to be in different leagues as this game should not be close. Although goaltending has stood tall for the Sabres I don't think they will keep tonights shooting gallery within a goal.
Los Angeles Kings at Edmonton Oilers - Under 5 at 1.91
These two teams are 0-8-2 in the over/under so it is likely we will see this continue especially with Scrivens looking to prove himself that he can be a starting goaltender against his former team. Edmonton has also played a reasonable defensive game of late but need to do a better job scoring. As long as J. Quick starts for LA this will not be the game to set the offensive into motion so look for Edmonton to compete in a defensive game that Scrivens shines but still is likely to lose.
Lets get into todays picks
New York Rangers 1.61 vs Detroit Red Wings
Detroit has done a pretty good job, better than I thought considering the injuries to the team but I think the nationally televised game will provide enough excitement in the New York locker room to get a win. I really want to play the regulation win at 2.00 however with these teams playing close low scorings games in the past I am going to proceed with a bit of caution and buy the money line although I am quite confident in the pick of the Rangers.
Chicago Blackhawks -1 at 1.83 at Buffalo Sabres
These teams ought to be in different leagues as this game should not be close. Although goaltending has stood tall for the Sabres I don't think they will keep tonights shooting gallery within a goal.
Los Angeles Kings at Edmonton Oilers - Under 5 at 1.91
These two teams are 0-8-2 in the over/under so it is likely we will see this continue especially with Scrivens looking to prove himself that he can be a starting goaltender against his former team. Edmonton has also played a reasonable defensive game of late but need to do a better job scoring. As long as J. Quick starts for LA this will not be the game to set the offensive into motion so look for Edmonton to compete in a defensive game that Scrivens shines but still is likely to lose.
Thursday, March 6, 2014
Well, with a few ups and downs the past few days we are still over one thousand dollars, which I am completely satisfied with as this is a marathon and in no way a sprint. Although we all wish it could happen fast the truth is the faster it happens the greater risk you are likely taking that you may end up bankrupt.
Although I will admit I do play a considerable amount of parlays (multiple game bet, which all must win), some say it is better to just lay a single team, and usually it is in the long term. As long as I continue on the winning side I am comfortable expanding my betting profile to include parlays that although add considerable risk to a bet, can be help introduce profits to your bankroll, but only if you bet within the risk. That means if I am willing to place $50 on a straight bet, do not play $50 on a four team parlay bet just because it pays big, the odds of winning are greatly reduced as multiple outcomes must occur however if you manage your bets and make smaller investments at the greater risk you can make some smart parlay picks.
At the end of the day most games are more equal than assumed and if each team stands a roughly 50% of winning, it is likely that out of two picks one may very well lose based on odds of the event occurring. That means the chance of winning your four or eight team parlay does not stand up very well. If you are playing parlays I would recommend a three team parlay betting strategy of about 20% of the amount you would on a single game pick.
Now with all that said here are some picks.
Colorado 1.91 at Detroit
Detroit has taken care of Colorado in its last four meetings however in each game they were outshot by Colorado. Once again with a banged up lineup I see Detroit suffering from the loss of a couple leaders and finally giving in to a Colorado team that just came off a regulation win in Chicago. At toss up odds take the better team even if both clubs were at full health.
Chicago -1 at 1.87 vs Columbus
Chicago is 10-0-0 vs Columbus. Although Columbus has been playing better and should not be underrated especially with strong goaltending on any given night. These past numbers can not be passed up and although I will take the chance of a two goal win by Chicago I will do so cautiously as the last four games Chicago has only won by a goal.
St Louis 1.65 at Nashville
I am not going too look much into this but I expect this line to keep falling as bets are made on St Louis. You can also try the -1 odds at 2.10 on St Louis.
As you will come to see I am a fan of -1 odds. They were recently not offered but appear to have made there way back. I am a believer that in terms of betting, a push is a win, it is as if the bet was never made. Now on teams such as Chicago or St Louis who are expected to win on most given nights especially at home the money line offers little value at times, while the -1.5 spread means a game must end in regulation by two goals. What a -1 spread means in a NHL game is that as long as your team wins, you win. You win by it either being a push saving you in case of a win in extra time or by greater odds if the team does win in regulation and like I said, empty net goals are huge in NHL Betting, they lead to 4-2 scores over 5.5 and they lead to two goal victories in otherwise one goal games.
That is all for now, many lines have not yet been announced and Stamkos return at home vs Buffalo may be something you want to bet as soon as the line is announced as I don't see the line moving much in Buffalos favor when it is.
Although I will admit I do play a considerable amount of parlays (multiple game bet, which all must win), some say it is better to just lay a single team, and usually it is in the long term. As long as I continue on the winning side I am comfortable expanding my betting profile to include parlays that although add considerable risk to a bet, can be help introduce profits to your bankroll, but only if you bet within the risk. That means if I am willing to place $50 on a straight bet, do not play $50 on a four team parlay bet just because it pays big, the odds of winning are greatly reduced as multiple outcomes must occur however if you manage your bets and make smaller investments at the greater risk you can make some smart parlay picks.
At the end of the day most games are more equal than assumed and if each team stands a roughly 50% of winning, it is likely that out of two picks one may very well lose based on odds of the event occurring. That means the chance of winning your four or eight team parlay does not stand up very well. If you are playing parlays I would recommend a three team parlay betting strategy of about 20% of the amount you would on a single game pick.
Now with all that said here are some picks.
Colorado 1.91 at Detroit
Detroit has taken care of Colorado in its last four meetings however in each game they were outshot by Colorado. Once again with a banged up lineup I see Detroit suffering from the loss of a couple leaders and finally giving in to a Colorado team that just came off a regulation win in Chicago. At toss up odds take the better team even if both clubs were at full health.
Chicago -1 at 1.87 vs Columbus
Chicago is 10-0-0 vs Columbus. Although Columbus has been playing better and should not be underrated especially with strong goaltending on any given night. These past numbers can not be passed up and although I will take the chance of a two goal win by Chicago I will do so cautiously as the last four games Chicago has only won by a goal.
St Louis 1.65 at Nashville
I am not going too look much into this but I expect this line to keep falling as bets are made on St Louis. You can also try the -1 odds at 2.10 on St Louis.
As you will come to see I am a fan of -1 odds. They were recently not offered but appear to have made there way back. I am a believer that in terms of betting, a push is a win, it is as if the bet was never made. Now on teams such as Chicago or St Louis who are expected to win on most given nights especially at home the money line offers little value at times, while the -1.5 spread means a game must end in regulation by two goals. What a -1 spread means in a NHL game is that as long as your team wins, you win. You win by it either being a push saving you in case of a win in extra time or by greater odds if the team does win in regulation and like I said, empty net goals are huge in NHL Betting, they lead to 4-2 scores over 5.5 and they lead to two goal victories in otherwise one goal games.
That is all for now, many lines have not yet been announced and Stamkos return at home vs Buffalo may be something you want to bet as soon as the line is announced as I don't see the line moving much in Buffalos favor when it is.
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