TODAYS PICK:
Anaheim 1.77 vs St. Louis
Both of these teams are very skilled and tightly matched however at 1.77 odds I will gladly take my chances on the home team who has dominated in the past and I believe have the stronger goaltender. Take your chances with Anaheim to come out with a decisive low scoring affair.
Colorado 1.57 vs Phoenix
After a tough loss last night and a certain amount of jet leg I can only see Patrick Roy's team being prepared to pounce and continue its winning ways it had at the start of the season. Add in the goaltending advantage of Varlamov vs Greiss and I will take my odds once again with the home team.
Friday, February 28, 2014
As I expressed yesterday the beginning to my new "employment" started last night, now as I progress I will begin listing a few of my picks and any strategies I use. However as I explore the depths of this betting world I will be selective in the picks I offer as this will allow you the reader to either begin playing along beside me. With that said I must express that betting is as much about money as picking games so using your bankroll correctly will help a mediocre better while incorrectly will leave even even the most experience bettors into bankrupt gamblers.
Now, last night I learned some quick lessons, mostly those being in college basketball, high ranked favourites are by no means worth the value, many of these teams represent some dominant records but as games become more important and conference play heats up we are bound to see those large spreads shrink like we saw last night. Saint Louis lost last night at home to an unranked club, along them were Ohio State and Kentucky also losing for me in final basket games. Now if these teams who offer strong records offer money lines below 1.20 it will be a long deadly battle trying to prosper purely off these teams successes and a couple bad nights of investing purely in strong programs is likely to prove more losers. I would have to win over 80% of my picks to even stand a chance against the sports book. Now where does that leave us for our future bets. Well it certainly means not taking the high ranked St Louis at 1.08 odds to win, or Kentucky at 1.14, Ohio St a reasonable 1.42 on the road.
As I said sports books are in the business of making money, not sports, and therefore with strong favourites the general public is likely to pound the line with bets as we assume it is an easy win. As shown, there are no easy wins, thats why we play the game. If the majority of bets are being placed on a favourite and a sports book wishes to have even money on both sides of the game, that must mean that the minority is betting an equal sum to the majority, thus one can consider that a few people investing a large amount of money is a smarter bet than a many people betting small amounts. Who is more invested in the game? Clearly the few people therefore over time they must be profiting. Why not just bet the huge underdog every game as a strategy. I could try that but ultimately if it was so easy, we would have a lot more winners in the sports betting world. The issue is, that one any given day these teams can either dominate its opponent based on skill, or the underdog stays competitive with an emotional game.
Last night was not a total failure however as I deposited half of the one thousand dollars, as I decided I would make a second deposit if necessary. I picked a total of 30 games and won just 14 of them, many of the 30 were duplicates on a variety of separate bets. I turned out profiting 220.28 bringing me to a total of 720.28, a very successful first night result. The winning ticket, LA -1.5, Minnesota ML, Winnepeg ML, (NHL) It was worth just over 500 dollars at a $50 bet. Now that leaves me with a couple hundred dollars of winnings that were a result of my first hunch of a strategy. It seemed to work last night, I will continue testing the results before I reveal it to any readers. Just means you will have to keep coming back and reading!
Now, last night I learned some quick lessons, mostly those being in college basketball, high ranked favourites are by no means worth the value, many of these teams represent some dominant records but as games become more important and conference play heats up we are bound to see those large spreads shrink like we saw last night. Saint Louis lost last night at home to an unranked club, along them were Ohio State and Kentucky also losing for me in final basket games. Now if these teams who offer strong records offer money lines below 1.20 it will be a long deadly battle trying to prosper purely off these teams successes and a couple bad nights of investing purely in strong programs is likely to prove more losers. I would have to win over 80% of my picks to even stand a chance against the sports book. Now where does that leave us for our future bets. Well it certainly means not taking the high ranked St Louis at 1.08 odds to win, or Kentucky at 1.14, Ohio St a reasonable 1.42 on the road.
As I said sports books are in the business of making money, not sports, and therefore with strong favourites the general public is likely to pound the line with bets as we assume it is an easy win. As shown, there are no easy wins, thats why we play the game. If the majority of bets are being placed on a favourite and a sports book wishes to have even money on both sides of the game, that must mean that the minority is betting an equal sum to the majority, thus one can consider that a few people investing a large amount of money is a smarter bet than a many people betting small amounts. Who is more invested in the game? Clearly the few people therefore over time they must be profiting. Why not just bet the huge underdog every game as a strategy. I could try that but ultimately if it was so easy, we would have a lot more winners in the sports betting world. The issue is, that one any given day these teams can either dominate its opponent based on skill, or the underdog stays competitive with an emotional game.
Last night was not a total failure however as I deposited half of the one thousand dollars, as I decided I would make a second deposit if necessary. I picked a total of 30 games and won just 14 of them, many of the 30 were duplicates on a variety of separate bets. I turned out profiting 220.28 bringing me to a total of 720.28, a very successful first night result. The winning ticket, LA -1.5, Minnesota ML, Winnepeg ML, (NHL) It was worth just over 500 dollars at a $50 bet. Now that leaves me with a couple hundred dollars of winnings that were a result of my first hunch of a strategy. It seemed to work last night, I will continue testing the results before I reveal it to any readers. Just means you will have to keep coming back and reading!
Thursday, February 27, 2014
First and foremost, I am a maritimer with a dream, a dream to turn a reasonable one thousand canadian dollars into something much larger, lets say ten thousand, even one hundred thousand. Now, do I expect it to be so simple or so easy, not a chance as that would leave me vulnerable to the hands of the sports book as it looks to also make a pay day. Will the magnitude of a sports book eventually end in failure, possible indeed.
Now that you have a glimpse into my plans of trying to fight the brutal number packed, no day off world of sports betting. I know there are many strategies some people use, some are heavy on the statistics and past play, others are more in the moment based on injuries and the teams current form. Either way it is a very result based business, you win or you lose, either your bankroll will dwindle to nothing or it with reach my set goals.
A little about myself and why I am doing this is fairly simple, I am 24, unemployed and have an entrepreneurial spirit. Now I am fortunate that being unemployed at the moment I am able to set aside this money to try something that for most will fail with time, and I may very well join that group. I have bet on sports in the past and am fairly knowledgeable about most common professional sports, however I have never bet and ultimately succeeded. As a hobby that may be true, but I am dedicated to prove that it can be a profitable short term employment opportunity.
A game is fairly simple, two teams with a winner and a loser or in sports betting terms the money line, with variable spreads and totals a sports book is in the business of taking your money, not creating spread lines. A spread is simply a gage of the median of the sports better in each given game, add in the juice and the sports book makes money assuming it has equal sum on each side of the spread.
With this I see opportunity. I see it as an opportunity to take advantage of the greater publics naiveness when it comes to betting sports. Essentially being smarter than the average picker and using that advantage to profit on the sports books.
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