Thursday, March 6, 2014

Well, with a few ups and downs the past few days we are still over one thousand dollars, which I am completely satisfied with as this is a marathon and in no way a sprint. Although we all wish it could happen fast the truth is the faster it happens the greater risk you are likely taking that you may end up bankrupt.

Although I will admit I do play a considerable amount of parlays (multiple game bet, which all must win), some say it is better to just lay a single team, and usually it is in the long term. As long as I continue on the winning side I am comfortable expanding my betting profile to include parlays that  although add considerable risk to a bet, can be help introduce profits to your bankroll, but only if you bet within the risk. That means if I am willing to place $50 on a straight bet, do not play $50 on a four team parlay bet just because it pays big, the odds of winning are greatly reduced as multiple outcomes must occur however if you manage your bets and make smaller investments at the greater risk you can make some smart parlay picks.

At the end of the day most games are more equal than assumed and if each team stands a roughly 50% of winning, it is likely that out of two picks one may very well lose based on odds of the event occurring. That means the chance of winning your four or eight team parlay does not stand up very well. If you are playing parlays I would recommend a three team parlay betting strategy of about 20% of the amount you would on a single game pick.

Now with all that said here are some picks.

Colorado 1.91 at Detroit

Detroit has taken care of Colorado in its last four meetings however in each game they were outshot by Colorado. Once again with a banged up lineup I see Detroit suffering from the loss of a couple leaders and finally giving in to a Colorado team that just came off a regulation win in Chicago. At toss up odds take the better team even if both clubs were at full health.

Chicago -1 at 1.87 vs Columbus

Chicago is 10-0-0 vs Columbus. Although Columbus has been playing better and should not be underrated especially with strong goaltending on any given night. These past numbers can not be passed up and although I will take the chance of a two goal win by Chicago I will do so cautiously as the last four games Chicago has only won by a goal.

St Louis 1.65 at Nashville

I am not going too look much into this but I expect this line to keep falling as bets are made on St Louis. You can also try the -1 odds at 2.10 on St Louis.

As you will come to see I am a fan of -1 odds. They were recently not offered but appear to have made there way back. I am a believer that in terms of betting, a push is a win, it is as if the bet was never made. Now on teams such as Chicago or St Louis who are expected to win on most given nights especially at home the money line offers little value at times, while the -1.5 spread means a game must end in regulation by two goals. What a -1 spread means in a NHL game is that as long as your team wins, you win. You win by it either being a push saving you in case of a win in extra time or by greater odds if the team does win in regulation and like I said, empty net goals are huge in NHL Betting, they lead to 4-2 scores over 5.5 and they lead to two goal victories in otherwise one goal games.

That is all for now, many lines have not yet been announced and Stamkos return at home vs Buffalo may be something you want to bet as soon as the line is announced as I don't see the line moving much in Buffalos favor when it is.


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